MortgageCast

Mortgage rates have declined to near three-year lows as of mid-February 2026. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 5.87% to 5.97%, depending on the data source, marking a continued downward trend from earlier in the month. For the 15-year fixed-rate mortgage, rates averaged 5.38% to 5.47%, while jumbo mortgages (30-year) ranged from 6.24% to 6.41%. Government-backed loans offer more favorable rates: FHA loans averaged 5.87% to 6.12% and VA loans averaged 5.40% to 5.60% for 30-year terms. These rates represent a meaningful decrease from one year ago, when 30-year conventional mortgages averaged around 7%.

The mortgage market has shown steady improvement over recent weeks. One week prior, the 30-year conventional rate stood at 6.04%, indicating a decline of approximately 7 basis points. One month earlier, rates were at 6.04%, demonstrating a consistent downward trajectory. The 52-week low for 30-year mortgages is 6.09%, which current rates have now approached or surpassed. Adjustable-rate mortgages (ARMs) offer alternative options, with 7/6 ARM products ranging from 5.25% to 5.63% in interest rates depending on the lender.

Despite the recent improvements, mortgage rates remain substantially elevated compared to pandemic-era lows of 2% to 3% seen in early 2021. This persistent elevation has created a "lock-in effect," where approximately 82.8% of homeowners with mortgages have rates below 6% and are reluctant to refinance. Economic factors including Federal Reserve policy, inflation concerns, and the pursuit of tariff policies have contributed to the higher rate environment. Experts suggest that rates returning to 2% to 3% levels are unlikely in the foreseeable future, making current rates a realistic baseline for mortgage pricing in the current economic climate.